Bureau of Meteorology Winter Outlook: Warm, dry winter for much of Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology Winter Outlook that was released today is predicting a warm and dry winter across much of the country.

Climate drivers such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are currently negative, meaning local effects are likely to have more of an influence.

With the climate drivers being neutral, it is difficult to predict what will happen for large amounts of the country, although the background warming trend observed in recent decades and clearer than average skies likely means the above average temperatures experienced during autumn will persist into winter.

However, below average pressure over the Tasman Sea will mean westerlies will be weaker in the south of the country, bringing a higher chance of below average rainfall during winter.

This is not great news considering the southern mainland states have had one of their driest autumns on record (despite recent rainfall) and will likely put even more areas into drought by the end of winter.

Images: (a) Temperature outlook for winter across Australia (Source: Bureau of Meteorology) (b) Rainfall outlook for winter across Australia (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)