Floods and droughts - the concurrent climate crises in Australia

Australia is facing an extraordinary convergence of extreme climate events in May 2025. On one hand, vast areas of South Australia and Victoria are suffering record-breaking drought, with rainfall deficits pushing parts of these states into their worst drought on record. At the same time, New South Wales is reeling from severe flooding triggered by relentless heavy rains, inundating towns and cutting off tens of thousands of residents. The overlapping of such intense drought and flood events is highly unusual. 

Climate scientists note that while Australia is known as a land of “drought and flooding rains,” the current simultaneity and severity of these extremes are virtually unprecedented in modern records. Such back-to-back extremes, happening in parallel, are stretching Australia’s disaster response capabilities and testing the resilience of its economy. 

The first four months of 2025 have seen South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania receiving less than 20% of their normal rainfall. This acute lack of rain follows two abnormally dry winter seasons in 2023 and 2024, creating a cumulative effect. By April 2025, large swathes of southern Australia had experienced the driest 15-month period on record. Major water storages in these areas have been reported at critically low levels, and we have just seen a dramatic dust storm rip across the region.

In contrast, the east coast of Australia has been drenched by extreme rainfall. Last week's intense falls that struck New South Wales, particularly the Mid-North Coast and Hunter regions, caused rivers to burst their bank and cut off around 50,000 people at the peak of the floodwaters, and at least five fatalities have been linked to the event. Preliminary damage assessments indicate that roughly 10,000 properties may have been damaged across the flooded regions. This flooding emergency unfolded barely four years after record floods hit the same region in 2021, giving communities little time to recover. In Sydney, the state’s capital, the knock-on effects of the rain were felt as well - the torrential downpours moving south caused transport chaos for commuters, with some rail lines suspended and major roadways inundated.

SES crews have been kept busy during May with NSW SES - Singleton Unit Flood Rescue teams capturing this image while assisting in Cundletown and South Taree. (image via NSW SES)

The meteorological setup behind the floods involved a stubborn high-pressure system over the Tasman Sea that became quasi-stationary, funnelling moist air and continuous rain onto NSW, a pattern reminiscent of the March 2021 East Coast floods. These data points paint an extraordinary climate picture: while half the country cracks under severe drought, another part is underwater from excessive rainfall.

The climate whiplash communities experience indicates that Australia’s climate is becoming more extreme and erratic as global temperatures rise. Long-term trends documented by the Bureau of Meteorology and Climatics show clear shifts in Australia’s weather patterns. Notably, there has been a pronounced drying trend in the country’s southern regions, especially during the cooler months. Since the late 20th century, autumn and early winter rainfall has declined significantly across parts of south-eastern Australia (encompassing south-east SA, Victoria and parts of Tasmania). Higher surface pressures and changes in the Southern Annular Mode have reduced the incidents of rain-bearing cold fronts, translating to fewer rain days in the southern states. The result is more frequent years of below-average rainfall and an elevated risk of drought in southern Australia - which aligns with what farmers are now enduring on the ground.

Climatics data shows large areas of southern Australia are experiencing more moderate drought events per decade (from EWN's Climatics platform)

At the same time, extreme rainfall events are intensifying. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and for each 1°C of warming, the capacity for water vapour increases by about 7%, leading to heavier downpours. Observational data confirms that the intensity of heavy rainfall events is increasing as our climate warms. When low-pressure systems and troughs do occur, they feed on a more moisture-rich atmosphere and often yield heavier rain than similar systems in the past. Northern Australia has witnessed this clearly, with 7 of the 10 wettest wet seasons on record occurring since 1998. Such a catastrophic event, like the recent NSW floods, fits the expected pattern that while it’s difficult to attribute any single storm to climate change, a trend of increasing rainfall extremes makes such disastrous floods more likely over time. Warmer ocean temperatures around Australia also contribute to greater evaporation and moisture availability for storm systems, enhancing the rainfall potential.

2025 year to date rainfall percentages via Bureau of Meteorology

Australia has continually cycled through droughts, floods, heatwaves, and bushfires,  but these natural cycles are now occurring on steroids. Multi-year droughts today are not only rain deficits but are compounded by higher temperatures that evaporate what little moisture remains. Scientists note that droughts this century have been significantly hotter than before, meaning their impacts on soil moisture, crops, and ecosystems are more damaging. The current drought hitting SA and VIC exemplifies this “hot drought” phenomenon, where farmers have reported that even hardy crops have dried out faster than in past droughts, and heat stress on livestock has increased. With floods, a warmer climate supercharges rainfall when conducive weather systems arrive,  suggesting that extreme flooding rains could become much more frequent in a warmer future.

With climate risks mounting, Australian businesses and industries are urgently seeking ways to mitigate these impacts and build resilience. While we cannot prevent all extreme weather events, there are practical strategies to better prepare for and cope with them.  Clients working with Early Warning Network (EWN) receive forecasting and real-time tracking and alerting so that they can activate emergency response plans – for instance, moving equipment or stock out of harm’s way, evacuating personnel, or pre-emptively shutting down operations to ensure safety. EWN provides tailored, severe weather risk mitigation services which enable decision-makers to respond quickly and appropriately.

Beyond just warnings, having a well-rehearsed business continuity plan is crucial. This means conducting drills for emergency scenarios, securing backup power (generators) in case of grid outages, and establishing communication protocols to keep staff and stakeholders informed during a crisis. As climate extremes become more common, those companies with robust early warning and response systems will suffer fewer losses and downtime compared to those caught off-guard.

Businesses should also incorporate climate risk analysis into their strategic planning. Tools like Climatics can be used to identify and quantify the specific climate risks for a company’s assets and operations. By examining historical data and future projections, businesses can ask which facilities are exposed to floodplains or bushfire-prone areas? How might a hotter, drier climate affect supply chains or customer demand? Understanding these risks enables companies to take targeted action, like relocating critical warehouses out of high flood-risk zones, or diversifying suppliers for water-intensive raw materials. Data-driven insights can also inform design standards like constructing buildings to better tolerate extreme heat or wind, and operational adjustments such as shifting delivery schedules to cooler hours during heatwaves. The goal is to move from reactive to proactive climate risk management, using the best available science and data to stay a step ahead of severe weather events.

As we move into the traditional "off-season" for severe weather, now is the critical window for businesses to prepare. The next major event is not a matter of if, but when. By taking action now, companies can ensure they have the tools, insights, and plans in place to protect their people, operations, and bottom line. EWN is here to help with advanced forecasting, real-time tracking, and tailored risk intelligence. We're empowering businesses to shift from reactive crisis management to proactive climate resilience. Don’t wait for disaster to strike — book your free demo today and discover how EWN can help safeguard your business against Australia’s growing climate risks.