Australia's long-range winter forecast is here

Welcome to Winter, everybody! The Bureau of Meteorology has just released its long-range forecast for June to August 2025, and there’s plenty to unpack. At Early Warning Network, we help businesses and communities stay ahead of weather risks, so here’s what you need to know about the upcoming season.

Rainfall Outlook Across Australia

The BoM predicts a higher chance of above-average rainfall across large parts of mainland Australia this winter.

Much of inland and northern Australia has a 60–80% chance of above-average rainfall. This increased moisture could bring heavier rain events, especially in regions unaccustomed to winter wetness. Interestingly, the southwest (including parts of WA) and southeast (including Victoria, Tasmania, and far southeast South Australia) don’t show a strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions, meaning they could go either way. 
In the tropical north, keep in mind June to August is the tropical dry season, with average rainfall under 10 mm, so even “above average” here won’t necessarily mean heavy rains.

Median rainfall outlook June - August 2025 from the BoM

Temperature Trends for Winter

If you were hoping for chilly winter days, you may be in for a surprise. The forecast shows very likely warmer-than-average conditions across most of Australia, both during the day and overnight.

There’s more than an 80% chance of above-average maximum temperatures nationwide. Parts of the tropical north, south-west, and south-east could experience unusually warm days, placing them in the top 20% of historical records (based on 1981–2018). Nights are also expected to stay warm, with a high chance of unusually elevated minimum temperatures, especially across northern, eastern, and southern regions.

These warmer conditions could influence energy use, agricultural cycles, and the potential severity of weather events.

The chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this winter is very likely across the whole of Australia
(image via BoM)

The Climate Drivers Behind the Forecast

Several key climate indicators are shaping this outlook:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
  April 2025 recorded SSTs +0.62 °C above the 1991–2020 average, the second warmest April since 1900. In fact, since July 2024, each month has been the warmest or second warmest on record. Waters up to 2–3 °C above average now surround much of Australia, fueling atmospheric moisture and potentially intensifying storms.

• ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation)
  Currently neutral — meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is dominating — and expected to stay that way through winter. However, models show greater uncertainty as we head into spring, so we’ll keep a close watch.

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
  Neutral for now, but many models predict a shift to a negative phase between June and September, which can enhance rainfall over southern and central Australia. 

What does this mean for businesses and Communities?

For industries such as insurance, agriculture, logistics, and emergency management, understanding these seasonal trends is crucial. Warmer oceans and air temperatures increase the likelihood of intense storms and heavier rainfall in certain regions, potentially elevating risks to infrastructure, crops, supply chains, and communities.

People are learning more and more that weather is a a direct influence on business continuity, operational safety, and long-term resilience. To navigate these challenges, organisations need more than just forecasts; they need clear, timely, and actionable intelligence.

Whether you’re managing a critical infrastructure network, overseeing insurance portfolios, protecting agricultural assets, or ensuring public safety, EWN works alongside you to help reduce risk, minimise disruption, and stay ahead of severe weather impacts.

If you’d like to discuss how the upcoming seasonal conditions could impact your business or operations, get in touch with our team today.

Contact our business specialists today for more details.