Despite Australia’s 2022/2023 tropical cyclone season winding up two months ago, it’s a season we will never forget - finishing with a record-breaking bang!
Data via Bureau of Meteorology
Although only six tropical cyclones were named within Australia’s region of responsibility, it was a season filled with severe category tropical cyclones. Of these six tropical cyclones, three were severe category 5 systems with another two reaching severe category 3 status. Of the category 5’s, severe TC Ilsa was the only system to impact the mainland, hitting Western Australia’s coastline with record-breaking strength.
Satellite image of category 5 severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Ilsa registered a 10-minute sustained wind speed of 218km/h on Bedout Island – the highest officially recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology - with gusts of 288km/h (179 mph). This monstrous system didn’t just slam into the Western Australia coastline, leaving many communities isolated, but also severely hampered the local fishing and tourism industries in the process. In fact, Ilsa was so strong, it sustained tropical cyclone strength even as it neared the Northern Territory border, affecting numerous mining companies along the way, and particularly WA’s massive iron ore export industry.
SO, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FOR THE 2023/2024 SEASON?
With a predicted El Niño event moving into spring and summer this year, a decrease in tropical cyclone activity is likely across the country, particularly for the Queensland coast, where cyclones are half as likely to cross the coastal fringe compared to neutral years.
At a glance, EWN’s historical Climatics database clearly shows Australia’s tropical cyclone hotspots, with Western Australia’s Pilbara Coast taking out top spot. Along the Queensland coast, there has been a downward trend in coastal crossings over the years.
EWN’s Climatics database and tropical cyclone crossings across Australia from 1970-2023
If we further analyse the number of cyclone crossings since 1970 across Australia, it reveals this gradual decrease in coastal crossings of tropical cyclones. In fact, it reveals a staggering decline in recent decades.
Total TC coastal crossings and their steady decline since 1970-2023
Whilst cyclone crossings are trending downwards, their unpredictability is growing. The once familiar patterns and behaviors of these powerful systems are becoming increasingly elusive, presenting challenges for communities and disaster management agencies alike. Leveraging valuable data with Climatics can provide valuable insights into past cyclone behavior, enabling users to identify patterns, trends, and potential drivers of the increasing unpredictability. This ultimately helps prepare business and communities for upcoming seasons. Although crossing hotspots don’t mean this will be the exact path of a future TC crossing, it can provide insight into events moving forward. The repeated nature of these events, particularly for the WA coastline leads to higher chances of crossings in this region.
The Early Warning Network provides well-advanced cyclone forecasts, as well as embargo alerts 12-hourly when a potential TC may have a coastal crossing. These updates are then increased should a low be upgraded to a TC, or if this system moves from a category 1 to 2, to 3 onwards.
If you'd like to talk to our team about any of our cyclone or severe weather products, get in touch with us now.