Winter weather took an unseasonal turn across New South Wales on Sunday, with thunderstorms sweeping across large parts of the state, bringing hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and nearly 190,000 lightning strikes in just 24 hours.
July storm approaching Noraville in NSW on 7 July 2025 (image via Rachel Galea)
At the heart of the outbreak was an upper-level trough that triggered a highly unstable air mass, more commonly associated with summer conditions than mid-winter. The result was an atmospheric setup that produced scattered thunderstorms from early morning across western NSW and northern Victoria, intensifying as they moved east throughout the day.
By the afternoon, severe thunderstorm warnings were issued across the state’s central and eastern regions. Hail up to 2 centimetres was recorded in Mudgee, and pockets of intense activity brought erratic storm cells to parts of the coast and hinterland.
What made this event so remarkable wasn’t just the hail itself, but the timing. Cumulonimbus clouds and hail-producing storms are hallmarks of spring and summer, not July. The deep pool of cold air and strong upper-level dynamics created the perfect breeding ground for convective storms rarely seen in the middle of winter.
Lightning Strikes over NSW over the 24hrs to 6pm July 6th 2025
EWN’s forecast team closely monitored the system and provided warning of the setup:
An upper-level trough would destabilise conditions across northern Victoria and NSW, with storms developing from early morning and intensifying throughout the day.
Over central NSW, stronger storm organisation was expected due to localised heating, increasing the risk of hail up to 2–3 cm.
Elsewhere, scattered cells were likely to produce 1–2 cm hail, strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning.
These forecasts were delivered to clients with lead time, ensuring decision-makers had the insights they needed to activate response protocols.
EWN’s HailAWARE system played a critical role in keeping our clients informed in real time. As the storms developed and moved, our platform delivered live hail tracking across the affected regions, instant alerts to clients with vulnerable assets, and actionable insights for insurers, infrastructure managers, and emergency responders.
HailAWARE ensures that businesses and communities are never caught off guard, even when the weather delivers the unexpected.
HailAWARE showing hail tracks directly over many population areas in NSW on Sunday
This hailstorm is a reminder that severe weather doesn’t always follow seasonal rules. Unseasonal thunderstorms can develop quickly, disrupt operations, and damage assets, especially when your team isn't expecting it.
With EWN’s forecasting services and tools like HailAWARE, clients receive:
Early heads-up on developing threats,
Accurate expectations for hail size, storm severity, and impact areas,
Confidence in decision-making, even when conditions defy norms.
To stay prepared, proactive, and protected, talk to us about integrating EWN forecasts and HailAWARE alerts into your operations.