As Australia moves into spring, the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast and AFAC’s Seasonal Bushfire Outlook paint a complex picture of the months ahead. While much of the east is set to receive above-average rainfall, parts of the country face heightened fire danger due to persistent dryness, increased fuel loads, and warmer-than-usual conditions.
From September to November, the Bureau’s modelling (ACCESS-S) points to a 60–80% chance of above-average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, with the strongest signal in October. This is welcome news for regions that have endured long dry spells, but the Bureau cautions that this wet signal has weakened slightly compared to last week’s forecast, particularly in inland eastern areas.
The chance of above median rainfall for September to November (Image: Bureau of Meteorology)
For northern Australia, the transition from dry to wet season will bring the usual increase in humidity, storms, and showers. However, some regions will buck the trend: parts of central Western Australia are more likely to see below-average rainfall this spring.
Sea surface temperatures remain well above average around much of the country, at +0.56°C in July 2025 (the warmest since records began in 1900), providing additional moisture and energy that can intensify rain systems and storms. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is developing, which typically favours wetter conditions in the east, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral.
Daytime temperatures are expected to be above average across northern and south-eastern Australia, with the greatest chance of unusually warm days in the far north, southern Victoria, and Tasmania. In contrast, parts of northern New South Wales may experience cooler-than-average days.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal across most of the country, with the strongest chance of unusually warm nights in the tropical north, Victoria, and Tasmania. Warmer nights can keep soils and vegetation drier, which is significant when assessing fire potential.
AFAC’s Seasonal Bushfire Outlook highlights that wetter conditions don’t remove fire risk, and in some areas they can even add to it by promoting vegetation growth that later dries out.
Regions with heightened fire risk this spring include:
Western Australia: Dampier Peninsula, Derby Coast, Central Kimberley, Little Sandy Desert, and south-eastern Pilbara.
South Australia: South-eastern agricultural areas of the Murraylands.
Victoria: South, southwest, central, and southwest Gippsland regions.
In WA, seasonal rains have boosted fuel growth. Coupled with predicted warmer-than-normal temperatures and the likelihood of below-average spring rainfall in some areas, this creates a dangerous mix.
In Victoria and parts of SA, surface moisture masks deeper soil and vegetation drying which is the result of long-term rainfall deficiencies over the past 12–18 months, with some areas recording their lowest-ever totals. If forecast rainfall fails to arrive, fire danger could escalate quickly.
The interaction of climate drivers will be important to watch. A negative IOD often means more moisture streaming into eastern and southern Australia, increasing rainfall potential. However, it can also bring bursts of warm, humid conditions that may influence storm severity. Warm ocean waters also increase the available energy for intense weather systems, from heavy rain events to damaging windstorms.
Soil moisture is currently average to above average across most of the country, but below-average levels remain in parts of WA, southern NSW, central Victoria, and Tasmania and will need close monitoring for fire conditions.
Even in areas assessed as having a normal fire risk, catastrophic fires can still occur under the right weather conditions. The best defence is early preparation, constant awareness, and staying connected to reliable warning systems.
EWN will continue to track climate drivers, rainfall and temperature anomalies, and bushfire risk factors throughout spring. Our services help communities, businesses, and agencies stay ahead of severe weather and fire threats through:
Targeted alerts tailored to local conditions.
Pre-event intelligence for operational planning.
Real-time tracking of developing storm systems, rainfall, and fire weather.
With above-average sea surface temperatures, evolving climate patterns, and a mix of wet and dry signals across the country, spring 2025 will be a season of contrasts. Staying informed and prepared is the key to reducing risk.