A landmark study published this week in Nature Climate Change confirms what the insurance sector has long suspected: the rules around hail risk are changing, and not in a straightforward way.
The research, led by UNSW Sydney climate scientists, modelled hailstorm conditions across eight global climate models under 2°C and 3°C warming scenarios. The headline finding is that hail-prone conditions are moving toward the poles, and for Australia, that means southeastern Australia and New Zealand's South Island are in the crosshairs of increasing hail frequency, even as northern Australia sees a decline.
What the research found for Australia
The study projects that under continued warming, hail-prone days are set to increase in southeastern Australia, the country's most densely populated corridor and home to the greatest concentration of insured assets. Northern Australia, by contrast, is projected to experience fewer hail events.
This is a significant geographic redistribution of risk. The regions gaining hail exposure are exactly those where residential, commercial, motor, and agricultural insurance books are most concentrated.
A further complication is that the research indicates a seasonal shift, with hail conditions becoming less common in summer and more common in winter. That changes when insurers need to be on high alert, and it changes the exposure profile for winter crops like wheat, which are projected to face elevated hail risk.
Peking University released a concurrent study which found that when hail does fall, the stones are likely to be larger. A warmer atmosphere melts smaller hailstones before they reach the ground, while stronger storm updraughts support the growth of bigger ones. The result is fewer events, but higher damage potential per event.
In 2025 alone, hail events across New South Wales and Queensland generated A$1.9 billion in insurance claims. Severe storm costs are rising globally, driven by a combination of greater asset exposure in urban areas and increasingly shifting weather patterns.
The geography of hail is changing, but the physics isn't. Severe hail events leave a clear signature in atmospheric conditions hours before they arrive. While policyholders in newly exposed regions may have little historical experience to draw on, acting on the changing conditions early is what separates a protected asset from a written-off one.
This is exactly where EWN is working with insurers to shift the curve. Our HailAWARE solution delivers hail forecasts well ahead of an event, and tracks storms in real time as conditions develop. Combined with HailAWARE's targeted alerting capability, clients aren't waiting for damage and hoping for the best; They're moving vehicles, securing assets, and alerting policyholders while there's still time to act.
The value of that lead time compounds. A one-hour warning ahead of a $50,000 motor claim is a very different conversation from the one that happens after the car park is destroyed.
What does this mean for insurers in practice?
The science is pointing in a clear direction: southeastern Australia's hail exposure is growing, event severity is increasing, and the seasonal window is shifting. For insurers, that means:
Many of Australia's leading insurers already trust EWN's HailAWARE solution to protect their policyholders and their books. That trust has been earned over years of investment in insurance-specific technology, purpose-built to meet the demands of the sector, and consistently tested against competing alert providers.
The climate picture is shifting, and the insurers who adapt earliest will carry the advantage. Talk to our team about what HailAWARE can do for your portfolio."