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Weather News Archive 2018 October

Image 1: 3-day Heatwave Forecast (Weds, Thurs, Friday) - October 31st, 2018

 

Heat spreading across south-eastern and eastern Australia

31st October 2018

The hottest conditions seen so far this spring will affect parts of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland over the coming days, with some areas likely to exceed 40 degrees.

A slow moving low pressure trough will drag a hot airmass from northwestern Australia across the nation's east and southeast, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting low-intensity to severe heatwaves affecting parts of the region.

Across much of VIC and coastal parts of SA, the heat will be relatively short-lived, with maximum temperatures pushing into the mid 30s.

However, northern parts of these states and southern NSW will see maximum temperatures reaching the high 30s and into the low 40s, with potential for dangerous bushfire conditions on Thursday and Friday, before cooler conditions develop from the weekend.

The hot airmass will then be pushed over the interior and northern NSW and QLD from the weekend, with potential for well above average temperatures to persist until mid-next week. It is over these areas where severe heatwave conditions are most likely.

Current indications suggest the very hot conditions will be followed by widespread rain and cool conditions, which will spread gradually north from early next week.



Image 1: Image from EWN's own Michael Bath & James Harris. - October 26th, 2018

 

Storms ravage southern QLD and northern NSW

26th October 2018

Ground hog day continued for eastern QLD and northern NSW during Thursday afternoon as severe thunderstorms once again rolled across the region.

A moderate to strongly unstable environment was in place with sufficient wind shear to help a few supercell thunderstorms develop. A strong cap (region of warm air sitting above the surface like a lid), held storm development off until the late afternoon, before cells fired across the Northern Rivers, western Darling Downs, Northern Tablelands and North West Slopes and Plains.

During the late afternoon, activity rapidly intensified with Oakey on the Darling Downs receiving a wind gust of 120km/h. Legume, in far northern NSW saw hail as large as 5cm in diameter as a violent supercell began to take shape. This storm would then track in a north north-easterly direction before bringing down multiple large trees west of Aratula across SE QLD and producing copious amounts of hail up to golf ball size. (To see what ingredients are required for supercell storms to develop click here.

Further storm activity occurred across SE QLD into the evening, however a strongly capped environment across coastal locations saw storm activity slowly decay. While a lull in storm activity is expected over the coming days, dry and gusty westerly winds will fuel very hot conditions across the eastern QLD and northern NSW, before a late southerly change moves in with cooler conditions this evening.

During next week, thunderstorm activity is likely to return across central and western parts of the state, with early indications that some storm activity may become severe. Keep up to date with all of your early warning needs by following our Facebook pages.



Image 1: Thunderstorm Image (supplied) - October 22nd, 2018

Thunderstorms lash eastern Australia over the weekend

22nd October 2018

Widespread thunderstorms swept across eastern Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland over the weekend, bringing a great light show and useful follow up rain to many areas, although some regions were also lashed by severe weather.

On Saturday, a broad trough that stretched from eastern VIC up into inland QLD initiated thunderstorms from the late morning, which spread east across the three states into the afternoon and evening.

Coonamble felt the brunt of some of the first severe activity, recording a 96km/h wind gust and registering 23mm of rain in just 21 minutes (in an eventual total of 28mm), the best rain since December.

Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning was a feature of the storm line at times, with hundreds of thousands of lightning strikes recorded. Southeast of Dubbo, a man was tragically killed, whilst thousands of homes were left without power across NSW.

In some parts of the Hunter, small hail was also reported from the storms.

Some notable stats included: A 106km/h wind gust at Toowoomba at 1:20pm Golf ball size hail at Aspley (Brisbane northside) 2-3cm hail northeast of Boonah A 96km/h wind gust at Gatton at 2:07pm 73mm in 1 hour at Mount Tamborine (included 42mm in 15 minutes) 56mm in 30 minutes at Bundamba (Ipswich)

Looking further ahead, a lingering trough will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, mainly across inland/elevated parts of northeast NSW and Queensland. Activity may become severe again around mid-week.



Image 1: Total Rainfall Map NSW - October 16th, 2018

Heavy rain and cool temperatures bring bushfire relief to eastern Australia

16th October 2018

Heavy rains and cooler than average October temperatures have brought significant relief to the drought and bushfire conditions over eastern Australia during the last couple of weeks.

A very dry winter, followed by the nation's driest September on record, coupled with warmer than average conditions had meant bushfires had become active much earlier than usual over the region, with a number of emergency fires across New South Wales in August and September.

Just lack month the outlook was bleak, with warmer and drier conditions expected to continue during spring with a the risk of an El Nino developing later this year.

However, an unusual alignment of weather systems (for October) has brought widespread and significant rainfall (as well as severe thunderstorms) across eastern Australia in recent weeks, significantly improving the outlook for the bushfire season in eastern Australia, and bringing much needed drought relief to some regions.

A blocking high over the Tasman Sea has provided a feed of onshore winds, bringing in large amounts of moisture from the ocean, helping any surface troughs make use of this moisture and produce rain and thunderstorms.

Furthermore, the alignment of the sub-tropical jet has meant upper level troughs have continually been directed across southeastern Australia, deepening the surface troughs and increasing instability over the region.

Across the last week, central and northeastern NSW have seen widespread falls of 50-to-100mm, with some places seeing in excess of 300mm. In eastern Queensland, there have been widespread falls of 10-to-30mm, with parts of the southeast seeing widespread falls of 50-to-100mm with isolated totals in excess of 300mm. For some areas, this is more than double their October average, although around Noosa has seen as much as four-to-five times their October averages.

The increased cloud has also meant daytime temperatures have been remarkably cool, with Sydney seeing its coolest run of October days this late in the year since 1981. Along the east coast, many areas are running 1-to-4 degrees below their long term October averages, a rarity in recent years.

Looking ahead, temperatures will increase across the next fortnight, however showers and thunderstorms remain a risk across the region, bringing further rain to some areas.

Unfortunately further west in South Australia where the rains have not reached, the bushfire season has been brought forward by 1-2 weeks due to a continuation of warm and dry conditions.



Image 1: Thunderstorm Image (supplied) - October 12th, 2018

Violent thunderstorms lash Queensland

12th October 2018

Violent thunderstorms hit parts of Queensland yesterday, bringing destructive winds, hail as large as tennis balls and flash flooding and reports of tornadoes.

A surface trough and upper level trough combined with high moisture levels and strong wind shear to produce numerous severe thunderstorms across the state, with the Wide Bay and Burnett and western and northern parts of Darling Downs the hardest hit.

Three pronounced supercell thunderstorms developed on the northern Darling Downs, before tracking northeast through the Wide Bay and Burnett during the afternoon and evening.

Some notable reports of damage from these storms included: * Golf ball size hail reported around Proston and Murgon * Tennis Ball size hail at Kumbia * Golf ball size hail at Maryborough * Tennis ball size hail at Gin Gin * Possible tornado sighting at Tansey * Damage suggestive of destructive wind gusts, with gusts of 144km/h recorded at Blackwater Airport at 6:23pm * 52mm in just 15 minutes north of Bundaberg

Further west on the Darling Downs, hail large enough to shatter windshield was observed.

A day after the storms, more than 10,000 homes remain without power.

Further thunderstorms are occurring over Queensland today, although they are less intense.

Significant rain is forecast across the state the next few days, bringing welcome drought relief.



Image 1: NSW Rainfall Accumulation Totals - October 5th, 2018

Heavy rain brings drought relief to NSW

5th October 2018

Widespread rainfall has fallen across New South Wales in the last 24 hours, bringing much needed relief across drought affected regions with some places seeing their best falls in over two years.

A moisture-laden trough has triggered rain areas and thunderstorms across the state since Wednesday afternoon, and has been steadily progressing east, collecting moisture along the way, with heavy falls occurring by the time it reached the coast.

Central-eastern parts of the state collected the heaviest falls, with widespread totals of 20-to-50mm, although some areas saw up to 80mm. In the Sydney Basin, Holsworthy saw the best rain in more than two years, registering 43mm, whilst Horsley Park's 59mm was its best rain in 19 months.

Inland areas also saw significant totals, although they were more patchy than coastal areas. Dubbo recorded 45mm to 9am, its best rain in a year and a half, whilst Forbes had its best rain in a little over a year, registering 26mm.

After the country's driest September on record the rain has been welcome with open arms, although it is hardly drought breaking. However, there are promising signs of follow-up rain across the next two weeks for both inland and coastal areas.



Image 1: Australian Rainfall Deciles - October 2nd, 2018

Australia registers driest September on record

2nd October 2018

The big dry has continued across Australia, with the nation just registering its driest September on record, and driest calendar month in over a century.

Despite the absence of an official El Nino event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the country remained remarkably dry throughout the month.

The country recorded an area-averaged 5.2mm for the month, well short of the long-term average of 16.6mm, the driest September on record and driest calendar month since April 1902.

While there were small pockets of above average rainfall, the majority of the nation received below average rainfall, with the driest areas in southwest Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and western NSW.

Due to reduced cloud cover, daytime temperatures were 1.41°C above average across the nation. However, clearer than average skies caused some very cold nights across the southeast, with northern parts of VIC, southern NSW and eastern SA seeing record cold September nights, leading to late-season frost damage.

Looking further ahead, with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole event and possible weak El Nino, drier than average conditions are expected to continue over the next few months.


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