Tropical Cyclone Marcus was named just after 11:00am this morning and is currently located approximately 50kms NNW of Croker Island and continuing to move in a SSW direction at 11km/h. On current projections, it is possible for the Tropical Cyclone to reach Category 2 strength late this evening or early into tomorrow at this stage.
The current Category 1 Tropical Cyclone currently has quite a few factors working in it's favour with good equatorial outflow in a moderate vertical wind shear environment and is also tracking over very warm sea-surface temperatures of between 29-30 degrees. TC Marcus is expected to continue to track towards the SW (under the influence of the sub-tropical ridge to the SE) overnight and potentially cross close to Darwin, NT during tomorrow.
As TC Marcus encounters the land mass, the tropical cyclone may weaken slightly back to a Category 1 system due to the lack of heat source and moisture provided by the ocean, before potentially reintensifying back to Category 2 strength as the TC tracks back over the waters of the Timor Sea late tomorrow and during Sunday. (On-route towards the North Kimberley Coast of Western Australia).
A Category 2 Tropical Cyclone is capable of producing ten minute sustained winds speeds of between 89km/h-117km/h and gusting up to 166km/h. Currently the Warning zone exists from Maningrida to the Daly River Mouth and includes both Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, with the current 'Watch' zone in place between the Daly River Mouth to the Mitchell Plateau. Destructive winds with gusts >130km/h are expected to develop this evening between Cape Don and Croker Island this evening. A storm tide between Milikapiti and Maningrida, including the Van Dieman Gulf is expected with the crossing of the tropical cyclone.
Click the image for an animation of Tropical Cyclone Marcus.