Thunderstorms are likely over northeast NSW and southeast & central QLD today as a trough moves over the region, and is fed by humid onshore winds with the aid of a southerly change as well.
Storms have fired from the early afternoon over the northeast NSW ranges, Darling Downs & Granite Belt and inland Wide Bay & Burnett, and will progress east during the afternoon and evening.
While activity will favour inland areas more, coastal areas in northeast NSW are likely to see some activity, as well as parts of southeast QLD, but the more widespread (and generally more severe) activity will occur inland. A few cells have potential to become severe, with the main risk of damaging winds and very heavy rainfall, however there is also the risk of large hail.
There is potential for some very heavy falls under activity with storms this afternoon, as well as in showers overnight and into Wednesday. Localised todays in excess of 100-150mm are possible, particularly in northeast NSW.
On Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will shift to inland parts of southern and central QLD and northern NSW, with severe thunderstorm activity again possible. Large hail, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are all threats.
Image 1: ECMWF Thunderstorm forecast for Tuesday 23 February, 2021
Image 2: ECMWF Thunderstorm forecast for Wednesday 24 February, 2021
Image 3: ACCESS C accumulated rainfall for the next 36 hours