Stable conditions are expected for the vast majority of Australia over the coming days, as a large 1037 hectopascal high...
After widespread rain early in the month, more rain is spreading across parts of southern Queensland and New South Wales today and into tomorrow as some places enjoy their wettest year to date in almost a decade.
A trough that is currently lying over the interior is deepening as it interacts with humid onshore winds sourced from the Tasman Sea, and a cooler upper level airmass. Cloud has been gradually thickening in response to the deepening system with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing over inland QLD and northwest NSW this afternoon.
As the trough moves east during the remainder of today and into Friday it will gain moisture, with the heaviest falls likely over the ranges, slopes and eastern plains. From southern QLD through to northern and central NSW, widespread falls of 10-30mm are likely, although over parts of the NSW North West Slopes and Plains falls of 50-70mm are possible, especially near any thunderstorms. This part of NSW has seen numerous rain bearing systems this year, with most of the region seeing their heaviest year to date totals since 2012 (a strong La Nina year).
As the trough moves offshore tomorrow a low is expected to develop and rapidly deepen. This system is expected to move quickly away from the coast (and across Lord Howe Island which will receive several days of wild weather), however it will send a bust of showers along the southern and particularly central NSW coasts later on Friday and into Saturday. Depending how close to the coast the low gets, coastal areas could see as much as 50-80mm combined from the trough as well as the low.
For other parts of the state, significantly drier conditions are likely on Saturday due to a burst of dry southwesterly winds. Over exposed coastal and elevated parts of northeast NSW and into far southern QLD, wind gusts may approach 70-80km/h. Large seas are also expected along the NSW coast during the weekend, with 5-6 metre waves likely offshore and up to 3 metres along the coast.
Image 1: Accumulated precipitation from the GFS Model across the next 72 hours (Source: Weatherwatch Metcentre)
Image 2: Wave heights and mean sea level pressure for Saturday 10 July, 2021 (Source: Windy.com)