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Heavy rain and cool temperatures bring bushfire relief to eastern Australia

Heavy rains and cooler than average October temperatures have brought significant relief to the drought and bushfire conditions over eastern Australia during the last couple of weeks.

A very dry winter, followed by the nation's driest September on record, coupled with warmer than average conditions had meant bushfires had become active much earlier than usual over the region, with a number of emergency fires across New South Wales in August and September.

Just lack month the outlook was bleak, with warmer and drier conditions expected to continue during spring with a the risk of an El Nino developing later this year.

However, an unusual alignment of weather systems (for October) has brought widespread and significant rainfall (as well as severe thunderstorms) across eastern Australia in recent weeks, significantly improving the outlook for the bushfire season in eastern Australia, and bringing much needed drought relief to some regions.

A blocking high over the Tasman Sea has provided a feed of onshore winds, bringing in large amounts of moisture from the ocean, helping any surface troughs make use of this moisture and produce rain and thunderstorms.

Furthermore, the alignment of the sub-tropical jet has meant upper level troughs have continually been directed across southeastern Australia, deepening the surface troughs and increasing instability over the region.

Across the last week, central and northeastern NSW have seen widespread falls of 50-to-100mm, with some places seeing in excess of 300mm. In eastern Queensland, there have been widespread falls of 10-to-30mm, with parts of the southeast seeing widespread falls of 50-to-100mm with isolated totals in excess of 300mm. For some areas, this is more than double their October average, although around Noosa has seen as much as four-to-five times their October averages.

The increased cloud has also meant daytime temperatures have been remarkably cool, with Sydney seeing its coolest run of October days this late in the year since 1981. Along the east coast, many areas are running 1-to-4 degrees below their long term October averages, a rarity in recent years.

Looking ahead, temperatures will increase across the next fortnight, however showers and thunderstorms remain a risk across the region, bringing further rain to some areas.

Unfortunately further west in South Australia where the rains have not reached, the bushfire season has been brought forward by 1-2 weeks due to a continuation of warm and dry conditions.

Image 1: Total Rainfall Map NSW - October 16th, 2018

Total Rainfall Map NSW - October 16th, 2018

 

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