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Heat, thunderstorms, fires, strong winds and dust hit southeast Australia

The highest temperatures since March, dry thunderstorms, fire weather, wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and dust storms have hit parts of southeastern Australia in the last 24 hours as a vigorous cold front sweeps across the region.

Temperatures skyrocketed to the highest they've been since March across parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales on Thursday, reaching the mid-to-high thirties, with some places pushing into the low 40s.

It was a stifling night for many regions as well as the gusty northerly winds kept the mercury well up. In Melbourne, it was hovering around 27 degrees for much of the night before a cooler change around 7:30am brought it down to the mid-to-high teens. For some others areas that didn't receive the change however, October records were broken, including Kyabram which only dropped to 21 degrees (50 years of records), and Lake Eildon which only fell to 20.8 degrees (47 years of records).

The high temperatures aided in the formation of thunderstorms, which unfortunately contained little if any rainfall due to low moisture. However, the thunderstorms brought with them damaging wind gusts to several places, including a 106km/h gust at Renmark, 90km/h gust at Coober Pedy and 95km/h gust at Renmark. This combination of high temperatures and low moisture can lead to the formation of high based thunderstorms which are predisposed to dry microbursts.

Northerly winds ahead of the change, and the change itself also contained strong and gusty winds, with gusts to 70-80km/h helping fuel dangerous bushfire conditions, with a number of fires breaking out. These winds also whipped up dust, with dust riding the leading edge of the front.

Today, and into tomorrow, the system will continue to bring hot, stormy and windy conditions, mainly across NSW and also QLD. Temperatures have reached into the mid-to-high 30s across large parts of NSW today, with gusty northwesterly winds ahead of the change increasing fire danger and a line of dry thunderstorms forming along the pre-frontal trough.

Tomorrow, winds are expected to become even stronger over VIC and NSW, and combine with high temperatures to lead to Severe Fire Danger over parts of southern QLD and central and northern NSW. Meanwhile, the south of the country will be experiencing temperatures in the mid-to-high teens, with snow about the peaks.

One of the reasons behind the strong cold front is a negative Southern Annular Mode, which is the lowest it's been since 2016. This is a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that occurred in late August.

As a result, we can expect enhanced frontal activity over southeastern Australia over the next several weeks. This is good news for Tasmania, Victoria and parts of South Australia which will see increased rainfall in this scenario, however further north this generally results in dry and windy conditions conducive to bushfires.

Image 1: Satellite Image for southeastern Australia on Friday 25 October, 2019

Satellite Image for southeastern Australia on Friday 25 October, 2019Image 2: Maximum temperatures observed for southeastern Australia Friday 25 October, 2019

Maximum temperatures observed for southeastern Australia Friday 25 October, 2019Image 3: Wind gust forecasts for NSW and VIC on Saturday 26 October, 2019 (Source: Windy)

Wind gust forecasts for NSW and VIC on Saturday 26 October, 2019 (Source: Windy)Image 4: Dust mass index for Friday 25 October, 2019 (Source: Windy)

Dust mass index for Friday 25 October, 2019 (Source: Windy)

 

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